Legislative: the Nupes in front of the macronists in voting intentions, uncertainty about the absolute majority

June 10, 2022

The left-wing Nupes alliance, up slightly, would be ahead of the Macronists in voting intentions in the legislative elections and could jeopardize their absolute majority in seats, according to an Ipsos Sopra Steria poll published Thursday, three days before the election.

According to this survey for FranceTV and Radio France carried out on June 6 and 7, Nupes continues to progress, to 28% of voting intentions for the first round of legislative elections on Sunday (0.5 points compared to the previous survey from 3 to 6 June) and is now ahead of Together! (27%, -1 point), which includes LREM, the Modem, Horizons and Agir.

The National Rally is also down to 19.5% (-0.5 pt), but comes far ahead of Les Républicains (11%, stable) and Reconquête! (6%, 0.5pt).

“We had a completely flat encephalogram with the balance of power that did not change, and there for the first time, it quivers a little, there is the beginning of a dynamic rather in favor of Nupes and an erosion of Ensemble!” , commented on franceinfo the deputy director of Ipsos Brice Teinturier.

The projection in seats always gives an advantage to the macronists who would come first with 260 to 300 seats, but without certainty of obtaining the absolute majority of 289 seats.

The left Nupes alliance sealed around Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI, PS, EELV, PCF) is credited with 175 to 215 seats, ahead of LR (35 to 55 seats) and the RN (20 to 50 seats).

“We would still be with a lead in seats for Together! because in a voting system where you have a second round, for the carryover of votes, the central coalition has an advantage over the coalitions” at the extremes, explains Brice Teinturier.

According to this survey, abstention could reach between 52% and 56% on Sunday, with an average point of 54%, well above the 51.3% of June 11, 2017, the previous record for a first round of legislative elections.

Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the vote. They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey.

This was carried out from June 6 to 7 with a sample of 2,000 people representative of the French population, registered on the electoral lists, aged 18 and over. The margin of error is between 0.6 and 2.2%.