Legislative: Valls, support of Macron, eliminated in the first round

June 6, 2022

A week before the first round, the rather sluggish legislative campaign was shaken on Sunday by the elimination of Manuel Valls, supported by the macronie who hopes to retain the majority despite pressure from the left alliance behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

“I take note of the results (…) If the dissent and the division have sown confusion, I cannot ignore my score and the fact that my candidacy did not convince”, he said on Twitter , even before the official results were published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“It is up to me lucidly to draw the consequences”, he wrote, before calling to block in the second round the candidate of Nupes, Renaud Le Berre, who came first according to his formation, in this fifth constituency of French people living abroad, which brings together Spain, Portugal, Monaco and Andorra and has around 120,000 registered voters.

“Goodbye Twitter…”, he added, before presumably closing his account which was no longer accessible on Sunday evening.

Several members of the left-wing Nupes alliance and in particular of LFI immediately rejoiced at the news, relaying on Twitter, like LFI number 2 Adrien Quatennens, a photo of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and other parliamentarians waving signs “Good riddance”.

“Adios Manuel Valls”. “The left is indeed irreconcilable with neoliberalism, macronism, 49-3 and betrayal,” tweeted the environmentalist mayor of Grenoble, support of Nupes, Eric Piolle.

The Polynesians, who voted on Saturday, placed the candidates invested by the presidential majority in the first (Nicole Bouteau, 41.9%) and the second constituency (Tepuaraurii Teriitahi, 33.2%) in the lead. In the third constituency, on the other hand, it was the outgoing Moetai Brotherson, who sat with the Communists in the Assembly, who came first (34.2%), two points ahead of the Macronist candidate.

Even more than in the presidential election, abstention, expected at a record level for a first round of legislative elections (52 or 53% according to the polls against 51.3% in 2017), should play a key role in the ballot of the 12 and June 19.

The abstention of young people and the working classes could benefit the current majority, which relies on an older and more affluent electorate than that of the RN or the left alliance (Nupes), believe specialists.

But “the concern is there” among the macronists, explained Sunday evening on LCI the pollster Frédéric Dabi (Ifop) because “There are hypotheses which would give relative majorities” to the camp of Emmanuel Macron, below the absolute majority of 289 seats.

It would be ahead of the Nupes alliance (LFI, EELV, PS, PC) around Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which could reach between 170 and 205 seats, ahead of LR (35 to 55 deputies) and the RN (20 to 50 seats), according to the ‘Ifop.

But “The scenario of an absolute majority for Nupes is for the moment excluded”, according to Frédéric Dabi.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon still wants to believe in a victory which would then force Emmanuel Macron to appoint him Prime Minister, even if the president recalled that he had the prerogative to choose his head of government, even in cohabitation. “It’s useless to pay for an institutional crisis on top of that,” the rebellious man quipped on LCI on Sunday.

On the far right, Marine Le Pen, campaigning in Pas-de-Calais, wanted to mobilize her troops, assuring them that there was “still time to prevent Macron from having all the powers” and to “defeat the curse of an unfair voting system, which keeps a worm-eaten system in place”.

The presidential finalist (41.5% in the second round) had remained quite discreet until then.

“We had to digest the presidential election but above all, there was no one opposite in the ring”, defended on RMC Sunday the deputy and spokesman for the RN Sébastien Chenu, deploring that Emmanuel Macron either “hidden” since his re-election.

Ms Le Pen has since revised her goals upwards and called on her supporters to “give her 100 to 150 deputies”.

In a video message published on Sunday morning, the far-right leader had called, alongside party president Jordan Bardella, to “go vote”. The day before, he had already conjured “the patriots” to “not disperse their voices”, in the midst of a fratricidal war with the camp of Eric Zemmour (Reconquest!).

The latter was also crushed by one of his former “friends”, the mayor of Béziers Robert Ménard, who said on BFMTV “angry, and not half” with the former polemicist, who according to him ” caricatured” their ideas during a “mad furious” campaign and which “plays Mélenchon’s game today”.

Emmanuel Macron ended up committing to two trips on Tuesday and Thursday and an interview in the regional press on Friday evening, to call on the French to choose a “stable and serious majority” in the face of “Jean-Luc’s project of disorder and submission Mélenchon or Madame Le Pen”.