Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 is set to make a big impact on Xbox Game Pass, with analysts predicting that it could attract up to 4 million new subscribers to Microsoft’s subscription service. However, this surge in subscribers may come at a cost, as it is estimated that up to 6 million sales of the game could be lost.
This latest installment in the Call of Duty franchise will be the first title to launch on Game Pass Ultimate and PC Game Pass on the same day. This move is seen as a critical test for Microsoft’s subscription service strategy following its acquisition of Activision Blizzard last year.
Analysts, including Michael Pachter from Wedbush Securities and Piers Harding-Rolls from Ampere, have varying opinions on the impact of Black Ops 6’s Game Pass launch. Pachter believes that Microsoft could see between 3 to 4 million new subscribers, but this could result in up to 6 million lost sales, as some Game Pass subscribers may have purchased the game anyway.
On the other hand, Harding-Rolls is less optimistic, estimating that the Game Pass launch of Black Ops 6 may only result in a 10 percent increase in subscribers. He also points out that not all new subscribers will be completely new users, as some may be upgrading from lower Game Pass tiers.
The focus on in-game monetization is highlighted by Harding-Rolls, indicating that Call of Duty is increasingly becoming a live-service game that monetizes strongly within the game itself. This raises questions about how Black Ops 6 will be monetized compared to previous entries in the franchise.
As for the impact on PlayStation, which has been a traditional platform for Call of Duty games, analysts believe that the longer-term audience on PlayStation may not be significantly disrupted. While some players who own both Xbox and PlayStation consoles may choose to play on Microsoft devices, cross-platform play and multi-platform accounts mean that this decision may not be permanent.
Microsoft is expected to share subscription numbers if Black Ops 6 proves to be a success on Game Pass. The company reported 34 million “fully paid” subscribers in February, up from 25 million previously. However, questions remain about the long-term retention of subscribers and whether the initial hype around Black Ops 6 will lead to a sustained increase in membership.
Overall, the launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Game Pass represents a significant shift in how blockbuster games are distributed and monetized, with Microsoft hoping to leverage the popularity of the franchise to attract new subscribers to its service.
